Going to try something new this week. Might work out better, it might not. But feel free to pass along some feedback.

I know how I approach research, I uncover things on Monday, then also Tuesday, and finally roll it all together on Wednesday. So I think it might be beneficial to treat this like an actual blog and I can jot down notes and ideas as the week progresses. Stay tuned. It should have at least as much content as normal article, but actually is populated as the week goes on instead of all at once on Wednesday.

Monday

So diving into the course, it really seems similar to last week where the driving is consolidated. Last week was mostly 290-310, and this week it is an even split of 270-290 and 290-310. But the similarities don't stop there, the Missed Fwy penalty is quite low, resembling last week, Driving Distance penalty is also below Tour Avg. This really strikes me as a driving profiency course. There is not much to be gained with distance OTT, but missing fairways also has less of a penalty. 

For me, I am using DrivingIQ from 270-290 and 290-310 focused on SG:OTT. But as I have started to think about it more I am going to consider rDA% for these buckets as well, but definitely SG:OTT is the better indication. I think a clever way to accomplish this is to use filters on DrivingIQ, simply click the filter and only show values greater than 0 for SGOTT and rDA%. It should look like this:

As far as Approach play, it is really spread out. Actually a lot more wedges than we have seen recently. ApproachIQ always makes it easy to get an Approach rank using SG:APP at the shot level, so i would start there. Your model should look something like this:

Tuesday

Podcast is up here

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So one of the things that stood out most to me when researching the lead-in form using our Time Machine data was the essential randomness in form coming in. There was no evident trend in a specific category of SG:OTT, SG:ARG or SG:APP. In fact ARG was mostly negative, but OTT and APP were variable as long as the combination was positive. 

I found this interesting for 2 reasons. Typically a course caters to good iron players. Always. No real way around it. But what makes this position on the schedule so unique is that the majority of approach shots (contributing factors to SG:APP) from the past 2 months has been from 150-225. This week we see a wider variety and moreover the majority coming from 50-125 which has been around 1 or 2 shots per round the past 8 events.

So while SG:APP is always useful, knowing the underlying data is crucial. For this reason, pay special attention to the 50-125 bucket in our ApproachIQ tool. You will see a smaller sample size, which is fine in this case, but it should actually be weighted higher than the 150-200 bucket.

The 2nd observation, poor drivers did not do well here, but a good drivers could be classified as either SG:OTT, positive rDA% or positive rDD. It is really a strange dynamic where both longer hitters and straight hitters have had success.

All of that is to say, I am more lenient on exactly pegging the studs in Approach or OTT, and okay as long as they have been doing 1 of those 2 well, and better yet if they have been either gaining considerable accuracy or distance OTT.

Hopefully that makes sense. Again, most weeks we can see a strong trend with the type of player that sets up well here, but unfortunately this week's venue at TPC San Antonio allows for a variety of players to have a strong showing.

Outrights for Valero Texas Open

Cantlay 18/1
Keegan Bradley 23/1
Sam Stevens 50/1
Rico Hoey 60/1
Ben Griffin 60/1
Victor Perez 100/1
Valimaki 100/1

Wednesday

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Thursday Weather

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