FRL Research: 2025 THE PLAYERS Championship
Are you interested in betting the First Round Leader for THE PLAYERS Championship? This article is going to highlight specific trends around FRL for the last 10 editions of THE PLAYERS Championship.
So here are some splits to talk through.
Tee Times
Since 2014, there have been 5 solo First Round Leaders. 4 of which had an AM Tee time.
That means 5 years also saw multiple players tied for the lead, always with a split between AM and PM, which I find interesting. So essentially, in every year ecept 2014, the FRL was tied or solo from the AM wave.
But I will take it a step further. Every year, besides 2014, the FRL came from a player that teed off between 7:40 and 8:40 AM. Quite a small window.
And still further...I found this probably the strongest correlation...well not the strongest but this is all building a strong case: Hole 10.
Hole 10
Yes, hole 10 is important. in 7 of the 9 years where the AM group was where the FRL came from...Hole 10 was their starting hole. Yes! And that doesn't include multiple players like we saw last year or 2018. Quite remarkable. Here is a look:
Now, I know the randomness that can occur in groupings alone, but when we consider that nearly every player in this field's range of outcomes overlaps, the AM advantage seems more than random. You get prime conditions Thursday morning, softer and smoother greens, typically calmer winds. It sets up for really good scoring where a 1 shot advantage in those conditions is a large advantage.
Now let's look at the current situation:
The First Round Leader is likely coming from this second group of players, early AM and Hole 10.
FRL Plays
Yes, definitely going to give some plays. Here are my FRL bets for THE PLAYERS!
Russell Henley 50/1
Shane Lowry 50/1
Maverick McNealy 65/1
Brian Harman 80/1
Michael Kim 70/1
Sam Stevens 100/1
3 Players whose odds are a little too short but if you don't mind adding a few plays or swapping from above, these are defintely higher prob FRL plays just less EV in our FGB Models:
Justin Thomas 35/1
Ludvig Aberg 30/1
Hideki Matsuyama 45/1